EU Reaches Provisional Deal on 2040 Climate Target

Co-legislators have reached a provisional deal on the EU’s 2040 climate target following their first trilogue on 9 December 2025. Although the formal text is not yet public, all three institutions have already announced the political breakthrough, and the Parliament’s ENVI Committee will receive a briefing on 11 December.

At the centre of the negotiations was the question of how to keep the EU on a pathway consistent with climate neutrality while ensuring competitiveness, affordability, and social fairness. The co-legislators ultimately decided to maintain the 90% net emissions reduction target for 2040, compared to 1990 levels, but to introduce several new flexibilities to help Member States manage the transition more effectively.

Key provisions introduced in the agreement:

• A capped use of high-quality international credits, starting with a pilot phase (2031–2035) and becoming fully available from 2036, up to 5% of 1990 EU net GHG emissions.

• Permission to use domestic permanent carbon removals within the EU ETS to address residual hard-to-abate emissions.

• Cross-sector flexibilities allowing temporary compensation between sectors without jeopardising overall progress.

Beyond these provisions, the negotiators also worked to reinforce the broader framework for the post-2030 climate architecture. The goal is to ensure that future climate policies remain grounded in competitiveness, predictable rules, energy security, affordability, innovation, and long-term enhancement of natural carbon sinks. To keep the system responsive, the Commission will carry out a review every two years, assessing scientific developments, technological progress, net removals, energy prices, and potential implementation challenges. These reviews could lead to proposals to revise the Climate Law if necessary.

The agreement also includes a practical adjustment: the launch of the new EU ETS 2 for buildings, road transport, and additional sectors will be postponed by one year, shifting from 2027 to 2028. Monitoring, reporting, and verification obligations, however, remain unchanged and continue from 2025.

The provisional text will be published in the coming days. Once available, ENVI will vote on it first. A positive vote will move the file to the Parliament’s plenary, after which the Council will need to formally endorse the Parliament’s position. Final adoption by ministers would follow, and the legislation would enter into force 20 days after its publication in the EU Official Journal.